Politics of Sweden: An Overview

Sweden has historically been a social-democratic stronghold, revered by the center-left around the world.  This control has resulted in relative political stability throughout years in which the rest of Europe experienced upheaval from extreme factions on both ends of the spectrum.  This stability has become challenged with the power of the Swedish Social Democratic Party (the SAP) waning in the past decade and a half.
Having led the formation of the government following 22 of the 28 elections since 1921, the SAP is not used to its power being challenged.  The country’s historical homogeneity has prevented massive changes in political opinions, until recently.  The center-right “Alliance” Swedish government was the first to accept all permanent asylum seekers during the Syrian Refugee Crisis in 2013, causing a large wave of immigration from the Middle East.  This policy received a critical response, especially from the right-wing, and as of 2017 over 300,000 Syrian and Iraqi immigrants live in Sweden.  This influx led to the rise of right-wing populism, turning the near irrelevant far-right Sweden Democrats (SD) into the third largest party in the Riksdag (the Swedish parliament) following the 2014 general elections.  This rise was, and continues to be, a major blow to the leading party of the “Alliance,” the center-right conservative Moderate Party (M), who were largely responsible for the open immigration policies.

The SAP have held a tentative minority coalition with the Green Party (MP) since 2014 with some limited support from the center-right Alliance’s parties, a cooperative effort crafted to avoid involving the Sweden Democrats in any coalition negotiations.  This move has put more fire beneath the Democrats, who have appealed to the center-right voters’ frustration with the Alliance’s kowtowing to the SAP.  Meanwhile, the same has occurred on the left, as the SAP has been threatened by the left-wing socialist Left Party (V), muddying the waters for future governing coalitions.  Like many social democratic parties across Europe, the SAP is not very willing to work with the socialists.  Despite claims from many politicians, especially in the United States, Sweden is not socialist, and the divide between these two parties shows the split that still exists between the two ideologies.  The upcoming election is overshadowed by the rise of the far left and right and whether ideological divides must be crossed to form a government or whether the traditional parties will continue their cooperation.
Like most countries in Europe, Sweden uses a parliamentary system, with the unicameral Riksdag selecting the executive, the Prime Minister.  Technically Sweden is a constitutional monarchy, though, like most constitutional monarchies, the real power lies with the legislature and Prime Minister.  The current Prime Minister is Stefan Löfven, who was elected in and 2014 and is also the leader of the SAP.  The members of the Riksdag serve a 4-year term, unless the governing coalition fails to maintain support, in which case early elections can be called.  The members are elected using proportional representation, specifically with the open-list party system in regional constituencies.  Any party that receives 4% of the vote nationally or 12% within one constituency will earn seats in the Riksdag.

As a background for the upcoming elections, we can look at the most recent elections to the Riksdag in 2014.  Heading into the election, the Alliance held a shaky control of the government.  The group was led by the conservative Moderate Party with the three smaller parties in the group being the center to center-right Liberals (L), the centrist social liberal and agrarian Centre Party (C), and the center-right to right-wing Christian Democrats (KD).  The SAP took control of the government following 2014 because of the Alliance’s failures, not because of its own successes.  The Moderates fell 6.74% of the vote to 23.33%, Centre fell 0.44% to 6.11%, the Liberals fell 1.63% to 5.42%, and the Christian Democrats fell 1.03% to 4.57%.  The Alliance’s losses went directly to the right-wing populists.  The SD more than doubled its result from 2010, gaining 7.16% of the vote to finish in third with 12.86%.  While not an overwhelming number, this was enough to take away the center-right’s advantage.  The center-left alliance remained all but unchanged, with the SAP gaining 0.35% to reach 31.05% and the Greens losing 0.45%, falling to to 6.89%.  V, meanwhile, also stagnated, gaining only 0.11% to reach 5.72%.  The resulting center-left minority government received less of the vote than the Alliance, but SAP’s solid first place finish gave them precedent to form the government instead of the Moderates.
The center-left government since 2014 has remained on weak footing, as the SAP desperately relied on the Alliance’s support to pass a budget and avoid what seemed like an inevitable snap election at the end of 2014.  The agreement between the ruling coalition and the Alliance fell apart in 2015 when the Christian Democrats left but since then the other three center-right parties have softly agreed to allow the minority government to continue.  This shaky footing for the SAP and Greens has only worsened over the past four years, as the continued rise of the far left and right will challenge the Swedish establishment in this election.  The question is whether the SAP will manage to save its machine or watch it crumble to populists like multiple countries in Europe have seen over recent years.
We will take a look at the 2018 election itself and discuss the dilemma of coalitions in our next article.