2018 Swedish General Election: A Preview

Overview

Now that we’ve set up the background and overview of Swedish politics, we can now take a took at their upcoming parliamentary elections, which will take place on Sunday, September 9th.
The election comes during a time of increased attention being paid to right-wing populism across Europe.  The majority of the coverage of the Swedish election is focused on the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD), who have ridden European populist wave into a prominent position in Swedish politics.  The governing minority coalition between the Swedish Social Democratic Party (SAP) and the Green Party (MP) is a weak one at best, reliant on the support of the center-right “Alliance” parties to pass key legislation.  This centrist cooperation has added fuel to the SD’s fire and also given the socialist Left Party (V) a boost, challenging the SAP on their flank.  The SAP’s long reign over Swedish politics is coming to an end, as the party has steadily declined over the last decade and a half.  The question in this election is: what comes next?

Polling and Projections

While Swedish opinion polls still show the SAP as the likely favorite in earning a plurality of seats in the Riksdag, they are used to a much larger margin.  The center-left coalition is looking at significant losses: the SAP is polling between 23% and 26%, down from 31% in 2014, and the MP is polling around 5% to 6%, down from 6.9%.  It is possible for the coalition, which was not in a strong position before, to fall below 30% support.  Meanwhile, the center-right Alliance is showing a mix of gains and losses.  The leader on the center-right, the conservative Moderate Party (M), is polling between 17% and 18%, down from 23.3% while the smaller parties in the group are fairing better: the agrarian Centre Party (C) is polling between 8 % and 10%, up from 6.1%, the Liberals (L) are polling around 6% to 6.5%, up from 5.4%, and the Christian Democrats are polling around 6%, up from 4.6%.  The Alliance’s stagnation comes as the SD has pulled away M’s more right-wing supporters that believe the Moderates have been too liberal.  The Democrats’ polls have been extremely varied, with polls showing them anywhere from 16% and in third place to 25% and in first, up from their previous result of 12.9%.  The majority of polls show them in second at around 17% to 19%, though, and they will likely fall short of beating the SAP.   The Left Party are expected to make serious gains of their own, as they have consistently polled around 9.5% to 10.5%, up from 5.7% in the previous election.  Finally, the far-left Feminist Initiative is not expected to enter parliament, polling only around 1% to 1.5%, well below the 4% requirement and the 3.1% they received last election.

Possible Coalitions

The rise of the fringe parties has caused uncertainty over what coalition to expect following the election.  One thing is for certain: the Democrats and the Left Party will not be a part of an official coalition, though the former could end up in an awkward support agreement with the Alliance and the latter could continue to unofficially support the center-left.  Here are a few possible outcomes.
1. Alliance Minority Government:  The Alliance is expected to finish with around 38% of the vote between the parties, more than the center-left’s 28% to 31%.  With the center-left taking significant losses it is likely that the Alliance decides it is time for their turn in the government.  Minority coalitions are not fun for anyone, but Sweden has a precedent of being decently successful with them.  The Moderates have expressed no tolerance for working with the SD, so a potential outcome is the center-left, or at least the SAP, returning the favor that the Alliance has granted to them since 2014 and offer support for the Prime Minister and at least major budgetary legislation.  It is not impossible that the Democrats could have a tentative support agreement as well with this government, but it is unlikely given the tense relations on the right currently.
2. Center-Left Minority Government: It is unheard of for a minority government to survive with 30% or less of the vote, but we are in interesting times.  The SAP is likely to be the largest party unless the SD pulls off an upset, so it is partially their directive to form a government.  While they could look to V for a support agreement or at least to continue to unofficial support that they have provided since 2014, they would still need assistance from the center parties.  The most likely outcome would be some sort of agreement with at least the Liberals and the Centre Party, who would be the most willing to work with the center-left.  Still, they would likely have to convince the Moderates to come along, even if just unofficially, if they wanted any chance of passing significant legislation.  It is possible, but it is unlikely and would probably not last the 4 years until the next election.
3. Grand Coalition: If the SAP and Moderates decide to put aside their differences and form a Grand Coalition, with potentially another partner or at least support from either the Centre Party or possibly the Liberals, they could possibly form a more stable government.  This has happened in other countries, such as Germany, where the established parties have been threatened by the rise of the right-wing populists.  This, again, would not be an easy agreement as the Alliance does not want to break apart to work with the SAP.
4. New Elections: There is always a significant possibility of new elections when there is no clear mandate for any party to form a new government.  The center-left and Alliance will be doing everything they can to prevent that, as it would likely continue to push the Democrats’ support higher, but putting aside policy goals for the sake of stability is not easy or popular.

Conclusion

Election analysis is always more interesting when no one knows what is going to happen.  That is why all eyes will be on Sweden on Sunday and during the coalition negotiations afterwards to see what the end result is.  In some places like the Netherlands, right-wing populists have stirred the pot but not disrupted government formation, but in other places, such as Germany, they have forced uncomfortable coalitions, and in places like Hungary, they have taken over.  It is unlikely that last possibility will happen here, but at the very least, a lot of coalition math will be done following the election to try and form a stable government.
Stay tuned for our election night coverage on twitter (@NobleReasoning) and our post-election analysis.