There are three major political fights emerging in the US and internationally that will only escalate:
1. Social-Democrats vs. Democratic-Socialists/Left-Wing Populists
2. Libertarians/Classical-Liberals vs. Right-Wing Populists
3. Moderates vs. Everyone else
The first of these obviously represents the divide between the Clinton (and technically even Obama) and the Sanders wings of the Democratic Party. Internationally: the SPD vs. Die Linke in Germany, the SAP vs. V in Sweden, internal divides in the UK Labour Party, and more. It seems that Democratic-Socialists are really starting to believe that Social Democrats have given in too much to capitalism. It’s a growing movement that the Social Democrats are using right now to try to win elections in the short-term. In the long-run, though, Socialists and Communists in every form see the Social Democrats as enemies, not allies, in their fight against capitalism. If the Democrats give in completely, there’s likely no going back.
The second is obviously a divide within the Republican Party. Notice that this isn’t the social conservatives. They, like much of the “somewhat conservative” faction of the GOP, have been swept up in the Right-Wing Populist wave that has followed Trump into office. This divide is from one of the two groups that has fought this populism: libertarians. The likes of Justin Amash and Rand Paul are often the only major voices objecting to it on the right, and though there are policy agreements, the underlying philosophies are competing. The battle is a strange one due to the intertwining yet divided nature of the two groups. They both point at government corruption, are (often) skeptical of foreign intervention, support lower taxes and less regulations, and are highly critical of many parts of the welfare state. Yet these similarities seem small once the differences are discussed: economic globalism vs. protectionism, pro-immigration vs. increased immigration restrictions, drug legalization vs. prohibition, gay marriage, privacy rights/surveillance, core parts of welfare, and more. In fact, the fight begins when libertarians realize that right-wing populism does not want limited government. It wants an expansive nationalist government that protects the people from various exterior threats that challenge their way of life.
Libertarians want the government to leave them alone. Right-wing populists want the government to make sure that people leave them, and their way of life, alone. Those two things are inherently incompatible beyond a few policy agreements. The libertarian desire for expansive freedoms apart from tradition is a threat to that way of life that right-wing populists want protected. The right-wing populist desire for extensive security against threats is in fact a threat to the freedoms that libertarians hold dear. This divide will split the right and the winner will depend on what the younger generations choose. Unlike the collapsing Social Democrats and rising Democratic Socialists, I don’t think there is an obvious long term favorite here. Among the younger generations, libertarianism in its many forms is growing. Right-wing populism tends to appeal to older groups, but it also has its younger torch bearers.
The third fight is what is left. The moderates: the leftover center that has not gone with the Social Democrats or Democratic Socialists on the left and has not followed the trend into Right-Wing Populism or Libertarianism. The moderates seem at war with all of these at the same time. They may work with some of the more centrist policies in a compromise with the Social Democrats, Libertarians, and even Right-Wing Populists at times, but they fervently resist these movements. On the right, they are the parts of the establishment who have not followed the majority of the GOP into Right-Wing Populism. They are the Jeff Flake and John Kasich Never-Trumpers who take a more pragmatic resistance to many of Trump’s more extreme policies. This has led them somewhat into an awkward relationship with the Never-Trump libertarians. The pseudo-alliance is temporary and weak, as the cracks in policy and philosophical goals are large but are sometimes overlooked when it comes to each other being “the enemy of my enemy.” On the left, this can represent the more true moderates, as well as some of the social liberals who are slightly more market oriented than their social democratic counterparts. Together they are trying to hold ground against the Democratic Socialists. The moderates on the left have been in a long term relationship with the Social Democrats, so I’m unsure if that war is as serious as the others, but the disagreements are still there. This moderate center is the group that smiles at a “unity” presidential ticket to ward off the right and left wings. They often misunderstand why the fringe factions have grown following years of moderate rule from both the Republican and Democratic sides pre-2008.
I am not trying to claim that everyone falls into these three fights. There are constitutional conservatives like Ben Sasse and other groups not represented here. What I mean is these are the main prominent groups and the battles I see in the future unless something changes. These trends are international. The US, the UK, Germany, and the rest of the EU are experiencing these battles. Merkel’s fights with the AfD in Germany and the awkward position of the FDP are a near perfect example between parties of what is happening within the GOP. Fights between the SPD, the Greens, and Die Linke in Germany are the same on the left. While we have a first past the post voting system, our battles are more intra-party while many other countries have inter-party battles, but they are all but the same.
The question is: who wins this round? The moderates and social democrats have controlled things for a long time in the US and Europe, but that is changing. How they respond to the rising forces will determine a lot. I see the more moderate center-left collapsing rapidly in favor of slightly more left-wing social democrats (and often green parties) and democratic socialists. The right is more foggy. I have hopes that libertarians will win but at least in the short run, populists are winning.
1. Social-Democrats vs. Democratic-Socialists/Left-Wing Populists
2. Libertarians/Classical-Liberals vs. Right-Wing Populists
3. Moderates vs. Everyone else
The first of these obviously represents the divide between the Clinton (and technically even Obama) and the Sanders wings of the Democratic Party. Internationally: the SPD vs. Die Linke in Germany, the SAP vs. V in Sweden, internal divides in the UK Labour Party, and more. It seems that Democratic-Socialists are really starting to believe that Social Democrats have given in too much to capitalism. It’s a growing movement that the Social Democrats are using right now to try to win elections in the short-term. In the long-run, though, Socialists and Communists in every form see the Social Democrats as enemies, not allies, in their fight against capitalism. If the Democrats give in completely, there’s likely no going back.
The second is obviously a divide within the Republican Party. Notice that this isn’t the social conservatives. They, like much of the “somewhat conservative” faction of the GOP, have been swept up in the Right-Wing Populist wave that has followed Trump into office. This divide is from one of the two groups that has fought this populism: libertarians. The likes of Justin Amash and Rand Paul are often the only major voices objecting to it on the right, and though there are policy agreements, the underlying philosophies are competing. The battle is a strange one due to the intertwining yet divided nature of the two groups. They both point at government corruption, are (often) skeptical of foreign intervention, support lower taxes and less regulations, and are highly critical of many parts of the welfare state. Yet these similarities seem small once the differences are discussed: economic globalism vs. protectionism, pro-immigration vs. increased immigration restrictions, drug legalization vs. prohibition, gay marriage, privacy rights/surveillance, core parts of welfare, and more. In fact, the fight begins when libertarians realize that right-wing populism does not want limited government. It wants an expansive nationalist government that protects the people from various exterior threats that challenge their way of life.
Libertarians want the government to leave them alone. Right-wing populists want the government to make sure that people leave them, and their way of life, alone. Those two things are inherently incompatible beyond a few policy agreements. The libertarian desire for expansive freedoms apart from tradition is a threat to that way of life that right-wing populists want protected. The right-wing populist desire for extensive security against threats is in fact a threat to the freedoms that libertarians hold dear. This divide will split the right and the winner will depend on what the younger generations choose. Unlike the collapsing Social Democrats and rising Democratic Socialists, I don’t think there is an obvious long term favorite here. Among the younger generations, libertarianism in its many forms is growing. Right-wing populism tends to appeal to older groups, but it also has its younger torch bearers.
The third fight is what is left. The moderates: the leftover center that has not gone with the Social Democrats or Democratic Socialists on the left and has not followed the trend into Right-Wing Populism or Libertarianism. The moderates seem at war with all of these at the same time. They may work with some of the more centrist policies in a compromise with the Social Democrats, Libertarians, and even Right-Wing Populists at times, but they fervently resist these movements. On the right, they are the parts of the establishment who have not followed the majority of the GOP into Right-Wing Populism. They are the Jeff Flake and John Kasich Never-Trumpers who take a more pragmatic resistance to many of Trump’s more extreme policies. This has led them somewhat into an awkward relationship with the Never-Trump libertarians. The pseudo-alliance is temporary and weak, as the cracks in policy and philosophical goals are large but are sometimes overlooked when it comes to each other being “the enemy of my enemy.” On the left, this can represent the more true moderates, as well as some of the social liberals who are slightly more market oriented than their social democratic counterparts. Together they are trying to hold ground against the Democratic Socialists. The moderates on the left have been in a long term relationship with the Social Democrats, so I’m unsure if that war is as serious as the others, but the disagreements are still there. This moderate center is the group that smiles at a “unity” presidential ticket to ward off the right and left wings. They often misunderstand why the fringe factions have grown following years of moderate rule from both the Republican and Democratic sides pre-2008.
I am not trying to claim that everyone falls into these three fights. There are constitutional conservatives like Ben Sasse and other groups not represented here. What I mean is these are the main prominent groups and the battles I see in the future unless something changes. These trends are international. The US, the UK, Germany, and the rest of the EU are experiencing these battles. Merkel’s fights with the AfD in Germany and the awkward position of the FDP are a near perfect example between parties of what is happening within the GOP. Fights between the SPD, the Greens, and Die Linke in Germany are the same on the left. While we have a first past the post voting system, our battles are more intra-party while many other countries have inter-party battles, but they are all but the same.
The question is: who wins this round? The moderates and social democrats have controlled things for a long time in the US and Europe, but that is changing. How they respond to the rising forces will determine a lot. I see the more moderate center-left collapsing rapidly in favor of slightly more left-wing social democrats (and often green parties) and democratic socialists. The right is more foggy. I have hopes that libertarians will win but at least in the short run, populists are winning.